Facebook's rise as a part of the mainstream has moved from one niche (schools and universities) to pop culture to the parents, uncles, aunts, grandparents and extended family of pop culture. Facebook has propelled itself so far out of any one demographic that it is now almost unfair to provide a comparison between Facebook and its "competitors" like Myspac.com. Instead, Facebook is now competing for for marketshare with those who simply choose to spend their time elsewhere. To Facebook or not to Facebook is barely even a question anymore. The question is simply, how much facebooking should I do? To move this question to the center of the table, we can see what has worked, and what has not worked.
One of the early demographic studies that was done between Facebook and Myspace (when Myspace was a genuine/real competitor) showed that the demographic using Facebook were younger, richer and better educated than Myspace users. Facebook's clean interface and history of signing up only college students likely accounted for this. Then however, the apps store took central stage and suddenly Facebook became a tool for the masses. New settings were put in plac, allowing users to alter what content they were forced to view when they logged in. New privacy settings attempted to mitigate the risks caused when you share all of your personal details, private memories and funny thoughts with 2000 of your closest friends. But where does that leave Facebook? How does it continue to grow, become profitible and maintain its position as king of the hill. A tall order for a company that went viral fast and simply offered better functionality than its chief rival.
WHERE WILL FACEBOOK BE IN TWO YEARS
Two years from now Facebook will have to come to terms with its own identity. Like a teenager warily crossing the border into puberty, Facebook will need to confront its strengths, its weaknesses and become firm in who it wants to be. If the company continues to drift into appstore wasteland, it will be nothing more than a simple mobile platform that competes with superior tools offered by Apple and Google (but with far less revenue to back it).
If the company decides it is just a social networking experiment, it should sell of the pieces to Microsoft, Yahoo and anyone else who wants to buy into it. Mark Z can let the big boys mess it up entirely while he works on a new project.
But if, as I believe is more likely, the company becomes obsessed with holding onto its current social networking platform, with app store, privacy issues and the same old tools and trying to defend its market share, then I think the company has few things to look forward to. What it can expect will be the following:
One of the early demographic studies that was done between Facebook and Myspace (when Myspace was a genuine/real competitor) showed that the demographic using Facebook were younger, richer and better educated than Myspace users. Facebook's clean interface and history of signing up only college students likely accounted for this. Then however, the apps store took central stage and suddenly Facebook became a tool for the masses. New settings were put in plac, allowing users to alter what content they were forced to view when they logged in. New privacy settings attempted to mitigate the risks caused when you share all of your personal details, private memories and funny thoughts with 2000 of your closest friends. But where does that leave Facebook? How does it continue to grow, become profitible and maintain its position as king of the hill. A tall order for a company that went viral fast and simply offered better functionality than its chief rival.
WHERE WILL FACEBOOK BE IN TWO YEARS
Two years from now Facebook will have to come to terms with its own identity. Like a teenager warily crossing the border into puberty, Facebook will need to confront its strengths, its weaknesses and become firm in who it wants to be. If the company continues to drift into appstore wasteland, it will be nothing more than a simple mobile platform that competes with superior tools offered by Apple and Google (but with far less revenue to back it).
If the company decides it is just a social networking experiment, it should sell of the pieces to Microsoft, Yahoo and anyone else who wants to buy into it. Mark Z can let the big boys mess it up entirely while he works on a new project.
But if, as I believe is more likely, the company becomes obsessed with holding onto its current social networking platform, with app store, privacy issues and the same old tools and trying to defend its market share, then I think the company has few things to look forward to. What it can expect will be the following:
- Investors who continuosly push for increased means of driving revenue...this will likely encourage a partnership with Google so that the company can install a superior ad sales system.
- A push for either a Sale to Google or an initial public offering. The founder, in this writers opinion will likely opt for the latter in order to maintain control.
- Post IPO lawsuits around privacy, monopolistic activities and sale of data that decrease shareholder value.
- A hostile takeover from Google.
Clearly this author is not a huge proponent of the business of Facebook. In his mind it is simply the world's best social networking tool...at the moment.
Ciao,
Don Simon
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